• Research Reports

The Annual Report of National Electric Power Supply/Demand Analysis and Prediction

SOURCES:Energy Research Observation Net  DATE:2010-11-10 CLICKS:

AbstractThe year 2008 is extraordinary for China, and also a difficult year for China's economic growth. After conquer the ice disaster, "5.12" earthquake, we must face the further impact of the financial crisis brought by US subprime mortgage crisis and the complex international situation. China's economic growth has slacked, and the increase of total electricity comsumption was slower.

The national GDP was increased by 9% with the growth rate decreased by 4 percentage points, and the total electricity consumption growth rate was 5.2%, decreased by 9.6 percentage point. Alough the supply capacity growth was fast, the most area in the country had supply shortage due to the lack of coal, ice disaster and the earthquake, but after Sep. the whole country had a balance between the power supply and demand because the world economy and China's economy has come down.

Perhaps year 2009 will be the most difficult year in the new century; the foreign trade situation is serious, economic growth will depend more on investment and consumption demand. In 2009, the annual GDP growth rate is predicted to around 8.0%. The total electricity consumption is expected to reach 3533~3602 TW?h at a growth rate of 3%~5%. In 2009, the nation will have a balance between the power supply and demand , east China and south China shoud have a balance between the power supply and demand, while north China,middle China, north-east China and north-west China's power supply will be affluent. Even though, some districts will still be short in power supply at the peak load because the lack of water.

In 2010 the total electricity consumption is expected to reach 3779~3850 TW?h at a growth rate of 7%~9%. The national will have a balance between the power supply and demand, but sometimes power oversupply will occur in north China, central China, northwest China and northeast China.

Key words: financial crisis; economic development; electricity supply and demand; analysis; forecasting
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